The Obama-Clinton Divide

I've had some interesting conversations lately about the democratic race for the presidential nomination. (Why we Canadians remain so fascinated by the political process in the US is a story for another day. But suffice to say, if Stephen Harper was your leader, you'd be looking elsewhere for your political intrigue fix too)The consensus seems to be that:

1) It's dragging on way too long, and that the only person truly benefiting is McCain, because,
2) Obama stands to get only more bruised and bloodied on the way to nomination, leaving the party in a very bad position, but
3) Hillary really has no choice but to stay. Why?
4) If she stays in the race and Obama stumbles badly (always a possibility with young, new-to-the-scene candidates), she's the nominee. If she drops out before he stumbles, there's a good chance the party chooses someone else as the nominee (Al Gore, anyone?). She has no incentive to leave, and just enough money and sense of entitlement to stay.

So, it's nasty. And it will get nastier. And for Obama, who has eshewed the old Clinton-style dirty fighting, it'll get harder and harder to resist getting his hands dirty. All good for Mr. McCain.

And on the voting front, here's a chart I found fascinating. Basically, it gives the numbers behind the story we've heard before - blacks and the affluent vote for Obama. Women and the working class vote for Hillary. That's the thing. I can't for the life of me figure out what the working class see in Mrs. Clinton that they don't see in Obama. Does she feel their pain? I don't get why she connects and Obama doesn't.

For me, I still think we'll see a black male president before we see a female one. Whether it's Obama remains to be seen.